Caribbean system could become a tropical threat to Florida

As Hurricane Fiona moves north and Tropical Storm Gaston snakes its way into the Atlantic, a system now in the Caribbean has long-term forecast attention that could bring it closer to Florida as early as next week.

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to issue advisories on the two named storms, including strong Category 4 Hurricane Fiona that could be a threat to Bermuda, but also keeping probabilities on three systems that could become the next depression or tropical storm.

At the top of the list is a tropical wave with showers and thunderstorms already bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the southern Windward Islands and soon to Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Venezuela. Colombia.

“Upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the upper-level wind pattern ahead of the system is forecast to become a little more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that time. said US Navy Hurricane Specialist Dave Roberts.

The system is expected to move west-northwestward and be in the central Caribbean this weekend. The NHC gives you a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and a 90% chance of formation in the next five days.

Long-term forecast modelsOften referred to as spaghetti models, they have different paths for the system, but several expect it to travel through Cuba and threaten Florida next week.

“It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next couple of days,” Jamie Rhome, acting director of the NHC, said Wednesday. “There is now a lot of speculation about the potential impacts of this system in the United States and that is too early to go that far.”

He said the NHC is dealing with its potential over the weekend.

“Beyond that, we can’t say much for sure because remember, the predictability of systems that haven’t formed yet, and this system hasn’t formed yet, is very low, and until a system forms, up to a low level circulation. Either way, we won’t be able to say much with certainty about the impacts in the United States,” he said.

The NHC is also tracking two more systems with a lower probability of formation.

Closer to Florida in the central tropical Atlantic, but less likely, is a large area of ​​low pressure several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It features disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but is in what the NHC says are only marginal environmental conditions.

“Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves slowly northwest or north over the tropical Atlantic,” Roberts said.

The NHC gives a 20% chance of forming in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five.

Further out, but more likely to form, is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa with showers and thunderstorms now over the warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive to some development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend as the system slowly moves north between West Africa and the Cape Verde Islands,” Roberts said.

The chances are 60% for training in the next two to five days.

Whichever system reaches sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, it will take on the name Tropical Storm Hermine and the next names on the hurricane list will be Ian and Julia.

However, the largest storm in the Atlantic is Hurricane Fiona, which is now moving north and is forecast to pass Bermuda and head for Canada.

As of 8 a.m., the NHC locates its center about 455 miles southwest of Bermuda, currently under a hurricane warning and where weather conditions are expected to deteriorate later today. It remains a major Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and higher gusts heading north-northeast at 13 mph. Hurricane force winds extending up to 70 miles with tropical storm force winds extending up to 205 miles.

“A north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday,” he said. NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist Daniel Brown. “On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just west of Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

While not a threat to Florida, Fiona’s swell is spreading west and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents along the US East Coast, including Florida and the Bahamas.

It is expected to increase forward speed and transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it moves over Nova Scotia this weekend.

Farther out in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Gastón, which has some of the Azores Islands under a tropical storm warning.

As of 8 a.m., the NHC places the center of Gaston about 340 miles west-northwest of Faial Island in the Central Azores with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph moving east-northeast at 17 mph. Its tropical storm force winds extend 60 miles.

“A turn to the east is expected by tonight, with a slower southeasterly or southerly motion forecast for early Saturday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores on Friday,” said John Cangialosi, NHC senior hurricane specialist.

The system is forecast to weaken over the next few days and then change course to the south and east as it develops into a post-tropical cyclone.

from Sept. Since January 1, the tropics have started to catch up producing four named storms in three weeks after nearly two months of calm.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its forecast for the season that 2022 would still be above average with 14 to 21 named storms, although not a single named storm formed in the month of August.

The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while the 2021 season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year requires 14 named storms.

Through Gaston, 2022 has produced seven named systems.