the pound sterling it tumbled below $1.10 by mid-afternoon, hitting a new 37-year low against the dollar.
Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said the government would cut personal income taxes and cancel plans to raise business taxes next spring, calling for a “new approach for a new era, focused on growth.” At the same time, he pledged to go ahead with plans to subsidize the energy bills of millions of homes and businesses.
But investors aren’t convinced the unconventional approach will actually help the economy, which the Bank of England warned this week is likely already in recession. Several of them called it a big bet.
“It is extremely unusual for a developed market currency to weaken at the same time yields rise sharply. But this is exactly what has happened since [Kwarteng’s] announcement,” Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos said in a note to clients on Friday.
Heading for parity with the dollar?
Cutting taxes, while politically popular, could also boost demand and push up prices, making it even more difficult for the central bank to control inflation.
“I’m very sorry to say it, but I think the UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market becoming a shadow market,” Summers said. “Between Brexit, how far behind the Bank of England was and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will go down in history as having the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”
The dollar’s breakneck rally as the Federal Reserve takes aggressive steps to rein in inflation is adding to the downward pressure on the British currency.
“Unless something can be done to address these fiscal concerns, or the economy shows some surprisingly strong growth data, it looks like investors will continue to avoid sterling,” Antoine Bouvet and Chris Turner of ING said in a research note. “We think the market may be underestimating the chances of parity.”